Yes the Highlanders have a huge home ground advantage and the have whooped Qld arse in the House of Pain on many occasion and in all games in the Super12. However, this is crunch time and both sides know their season rests on this game. Whoever, wins this game gets into the finals, while the loser fades into obscurity until next years Super12.
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Qld
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Highlanders
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Advantage
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1
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Nick
Stiles
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Carl
Hoeft
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Even
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2
|
Tom
Murphy
|
Anton
Oliver
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H/Q
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3
|
Fletcher Dyson
|
Carl
Hayman
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H
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4
|
Mark
Connors
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Simon
Maling
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H
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5
|
Nathan
Sharpe
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Filipo
Levi
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Even
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6
|
Matt
Cockbain
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Taine
Randell (c)
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Q
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7
|
David
Croft
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Craig
Newby
|
Q
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8
|
John
Roe
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Kelvin
Middleton
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H
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9
|
Jacob
Rauluni
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Byron
Kelleher
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H
|
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10
|
Elton
Flatley
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Willie
Walker
|
Q
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11
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Wendell
Sailor
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Romi
Ropati
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H
|
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12
|
Steve
Kefu
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Paul
Steinmetz
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Q
|
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13
|
Daniel
Herbert
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Ryan
Nicholas
|
Q
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14
|
Ben
Tune
|
Iliesa Tanivula
|
Q
|
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15
|
Chris
Latham
|
Jeff
Wilson
|
Q
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|
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|||
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16
|
Sean
Hardman
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Tom
Willis
|
H
|
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17
|
Glenn
Panoho
|
Joe
McDonnell
|
Q
|
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18
|
Dan
Heenan
|
Peter
Bowden
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?
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|
19
|
Mike
Mitchell
|
Sam
Harding
|
?
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20
|
Junior
Pelesasa
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Seilala
Mapusua
|
Q
|
|
21
|
Andrew
Scotney
|
Blair
Feeney
|
Q
|
|
22
|
Sam
Cordingley
|
David
Gibson
|
Q
|
The Highlanders have the advantage in scrummaging with a very powerful front row combination. But as we all know Oliver is a choker when it comes to lineouts at key moments. Ahh the easy ball that Anton “me wanta take Einstein to an island” was giving up all of last years Tri-nations was criminal. That is why the advantage is split between the hookers.
This advantage also carries out into the second row. Which gives the Highlanders a great head start in the tight five. The advantage might be only slight but it could be telling.
However, this advantage isn’t carried out in the loosies where I think both Cockbain and Croft have the edge over their rivals. However, the Highlanders do regain the advantage at no. 8 and that could be telling like it was on a couple of scrums where NSW got some easy ball of Qld mistakes. No doubt Kelleher will be sniffing around the scrum like a dog after a bitch on heat to cause these problems to occur again.
Kelleher is one of the best halfbacks in the competition and miles ahead of Rauluni who is the best halfback that Qld has. If you remember back to Blues game, Robinson was all over Rauluni like a kiwi on a ewe. If McBain decides to sub off Rauluni it could be a big problem for Qld.
However, it is going to be the referee and the 5/8 who will be the telling factor in the game. Cause it is a SA ref we must remember that they like the home side to win and they penalise the breakdown faster than a Manly copper making drugs disappear.
The game is likely to be won or lost over precision goal kicking and here Qld has the advantage in Flatley. What I have seen of 'Willy Wonka' and his kicking hasn’t always been pretty and it has cost the Highlanders games in the past like the Crusaders game?
Flatley's combination with the Qld backs is also far superior to his rival purely based on the amount of time each has played at that position. If both sides have to go with their bench I still think Qld has the advantage as Scotney's effort against the Sharks was clinical. (However, it can’t be said over the Cats game).
Once we get to the backs, Qld gets some serious advantage. I believe that the Qld backs are just ahead of their Highlands rivals. As all the Qld backs except for Mr $325,000 per try have had Wallaby stints. With the way they opened up their interstate rivals, Qld have some serious offensive capabilities.
I’m not saying the Highlanders can’t turn it on as Wilson and Steinmetz quickly dispense that. It’s just the whole Qld backline has more experience when it comes to crunch games, in particular Herbert. Herbert is again starting to throw down the challenge to keep his hands on the Wallaby 13 jumper. He will be instrumental in Qld’s offence and organising the defensive lines.
How the game will turn out. If Qld can maintain reasonable possession and at least hold on in the forwards it will be the Qld backline that will win the game, either from penalty kicking and/or the last minute try (eg Latham’s efforts to destroy the Sharks) that will see them through.
But if the Highlanders forwards can destroy the Qld forward pack then they will win, as the lack of ball will starve Qld. If they can get forward dominance then they will do what they did to the Blues. Drive the ball down the line and operate in the Qld half all game. Which is very reminiscent of the Qld game plan under Knuckles.
Hopefully it’s a good tight game with the winner being decided in the final minutes as this game is the game of the round and it will be played with ‘final’ intensity.
Go Qld, Go the Reds!
